WGC-CA Championship Preview

With no standalone European Tour event this week, the focus turns to the WGC-CA Championship, to be played over TPC Blue Monster at Doral, Miami. At around 7200 yards, the course offers players some excellent birdie opportunities and the par of 72 is perhaps a little generous for a course which ranked as the 8th easiest on the PGA Tour in 2009.

The defending champion in the event is Phil Mickelson and ‘Lefty’ has once again been installed as the bookie’s favourite despite several lacklustre performances so far in 2010. It is for this reason that we once again bypass Mickelson as a likely winner until his form improves. At such prohibitive odds he can’t be considered a serious bet and the percentage call is to look elsewhere.

Steve Stricker is second favourite and is on offer at double the price of Mickelson in some quarters which makes him a more attractive proposition. Stricker has already won in 2010 and the world number two arrives in Doral fresh from a break. One sticking point I have with Stricker in this event is that he may not enjoy the quality of opposition and may be better dominating events where the competition is less fierce. But with some wet weather forecast around Doral this week, Stricker’s short game could see him in contention on Sunday.

Camilo Villegas arrives in Doral full of confidence after winning the Honda Classic at PGA National. Prior to his win, the Columbian player had performed admirably at TPC Scottsdale in the Phoenix Open and finished 3rd behind Ian Poulter in the WGC Accenture World Match Play. Clearly as a player in the form of his life he has to be given serious consideration over a course that will play to his strengths. However I can’t shake a niggling doubt that last week’s win and the probability of recording back-to-back wins will possibly weigh heavily on Villegas and he might not repeat his recent form. If they don’t he is a serious challenger.

Anthony Kim has threatened in recent weeks to end a losing run of tournaments which stretch back to 2008 when he won the AT&T National, and he might well have done so at PGA National if it wasn’t for a third round 73. A real confidence player, Kim is playing well at the moment and like Villegas, will be playing a course which suits his aggressive style.

There are no reasons why English trio Lee Westwood, Paul Casey and Ian Poulter can’t continue their fine runs of form going into this event and each of the three has shown they have the game to win on the PGA Tour; and over this course there should be more to come.

Casey has three top-10s in three starts on the PGA Tour in 2010 while Westwood recorded a top 10 finish in the Honda. However, Ian Poulter plays the course very well with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts here, including a second in 2006 and that could see him come out on top in this particular battle.

After looking a serious challenge to Villegas last week, Fijian Vijay Singh could certainly trouble the leaderboard. Few men, if any, can boast the record over Doral that Singh does; a two-time runner up as well as two third place finishes and a fifth. Singh is perhaps something of a forgotten man nowadays but he is a player who holds his form well when he is on his game.

Geoff Ogilvy has gone off-the-radar since winning the early season SBS Championship. After taking some time off following the birth of his third child, Ogilvy was dumped in the second round of the WGC Accenture and then finished down the field at TPC Scottsdale. However, Ogilvy has historically struggled in that event and should find Doral more to his liking. If he’s anywhere near the top of his game he’ll be dangerous to write off.

But for this week’s pick and to hopefully eradicate last week’s disastrous picks I’m turning to Dustin Johnson to lift the trophy on Sunday. Johnson’s 2010 Tour stats are impressive and the player ranks third in driving distance and par breakers, fourth in eagles and fifth in birdie average suggesting he has the game to extract the birdies necessary to challenge the top of the leaderboard. Despite finishing down the field in this event last year, I expect him to flourish in the likely wet conditions and at around 33/1 should earn some place money at least in the each-way market.

Three of the tee

Selection: Dustin Johnson
Savers: Anthony Kim, Geoff Ogilvy