3 Irish Open Betting Preview

The European Tour has left Scandinavia and its next stop on the long road to Dubai is the Emerald Isle, and in particular Killarney for the 3 Irish Open, won last year by amateur-turned-pro Shane Lowry.

The Irish Open switches venue each year, and this year it’s the turn of Killarney Golf and Fishing Club and the Killeen Course – a tree-lined course with more than its fair share of water hazards. The rough around the course shouldn’t be quite so penal due to a dry summer, but the tournament often sees strong winds and rain at some point during proceedings so the draw could be important if bad weather does arrive.

This will be the first time since 1992 when Sir Nick Faldo won the event that the course has staged the event.

I got my fingers burned quite badly, putting up Padraig Harrington as a potential Open Championship winner only for the genial Dubliner to miss the cut. To be fair to Padraig however, he had the worst of the draw on both days but has often alluded to this tournament being a seasonal priority of his, outside the major tournaments. Padraig is without a win in nearly two years, and hasn’t really hit top form this season but with a return to home soil – it did Richard S Johnson no harm last week in Sweden – and with a strong record in the event, especially when the wind blows it would be no surprise to see him bounce back at odds around 18/1.

Irishman fill three of the top four places in the betting and all three hold strong chances of collecting this week. The bookies’ favourite is Rory McIlroy at around 7/1 following his St. Andrews heroics where only a disastrous 80 in the second round scuppered what might well have been a victory. It has to be remembered that McIlroy faced the brunt of the high winds on that second day and the day before had opened with a tournament record 63 as well as shooting 68-69 over the weekend. McIlroy is already a winner this season on the PGA Tour, coming from out of the clouds to collect the win. McIlroy didn’t play last week so should be refreshed for the challenge, but there is as always a question mark over his consistency to string results together while his record in windy conditions isn’t great. If it stays calm he must be a strong fancy however.

US Open champion Graeme McDowell was understandably rusty at Loch Lomond – his first start since winning at Pebble Beach and built on that at St. Andrews in the Open Championship. Although never in serious contention there, McDowell finished second in Greens In Regulation, suggesting he is holding his Pebble Beach form quite well despite a lack of outings. At around 14/1 he represents some value due to his accuracy and ability to shape the ball in demanding conditions; but its worth noting that he has yet to make the top-10 in any event played in Ireland.

Rhys Davies has gone off the boil somewhat since his blistering form earlier in the season but the young Welshman will be hoping to get back on track with the prospect of a potential Ryder Cup debut. His missed cut at The Open can be overlooked and windy conditions will hold little fears for him. A strong putter, there are few that can match him if the tournament turns into a battle on the greens and at 33/1, he’s a strong each-way selection.

Fellow Welshman Bradley Dredge could also be worth chancing at odds around the 50/1 mark. Dredge has some solid performances to his name this season despite failing to win and only recently saw an ideal chance of victory slip away in the BMW International by being overly aggressive at some tough pins. Dredge has past form in this event, losing the 2007 renewal to Padraig Harrington in a playoff while he led going into the final round in 2008 only to shoot a 76. But despite recent results, Dredge is playing well enough to feature prominently this week

After the exploits of elder brother Edoardo, Francesco Molinari will be hoping to grab some headlines this week and cement his place in Colin Montgomerie’s Celtic Manor squad. However, Francesco is without a win in four years but has been installed at just 20/1 which is just too short a price to be taking on the back of that. Add in the fact that his putting has let him down too often when the heat is cranked up and there are plenty of reasons to look elsewhere despite a solid tee-to-green game. Could take heart from the recent performances of his brother, but Francesco won’t be carrying my cash this week.

Prior to the Open Championship, Stephen Gallacher had registered four top-six finishes from six starts, before going on to finish 23rd in The Open itself. That was by no means a poor result and Gallacher is a proven performer in the wind. If he can find a hot spell with the flat stick, his odds of 40/1 could prove great value come Sunday.

Justin Rose also makes a rare European appearance this week after missing the cut at St. Andrews. Rose has been in the form of his life on the PGA Tour with two wins and a near-miss from his last three starts prior to St. Andrews and understandably features among the favourites at 14/1. While the American-style layout of the course will suit, the weather conditions might not; but he holds an obvious chance this week.

Selection: Graeme McDowell
Savers: Padraig Harrington, Rhys Davies