With the Open Championship just over one week away, the European Tour heads to Scotland and the magnificent Castle Stuart Golf Links course, Inverness, for the Barclays Scottish Open.
The venue, one of the best golf courses in Scotland, takes over from Loch Lomond as the host course and Italian Edoardo Molinari will seek to defend his title against a strong field which includes five of the world’s top-10 ranked players, including the world number one Luke Donald and number two Lee Westwood. Also in attendance are Graeme McDowell and United States’ Phil Mickelson and Matt Kuchar.
The home challenge is led by US-based Scot Martin Laird, while Ernie Els is a former champion in the event. And Paul McGinley – whose putt won the 2002 Ryder Cup for Europe – marks a historic 500th European Tour start.
Castle Stuart is a traditional-style Links course with dramatic changes in elevation, wispy grasses, wide fairways, scrub bunkers and undulating greens. Although relatively short at a shade over 7,000 yards it plays to a par-72 and will likely prove tough to play this week with wind and rain forecast throughout the event.
Given that the weather forecast suggests playing conditions are going to be tough, it may be wise to concentrate on players who have shown form on Links-style courses in less than ideal conditions.
And so, the first name to go on the shortlist this week is former US Open champion Graeme McDowell, who recently relinquished his hold on the title he won at Pebble Beach – as close to a UK-sytle Links course you’ll find anywhere – to Rory McIlroy.
McDowell is a former winner of the event, having taken the title in2008 at Loch Lomond and while Castle Stuart is a wholly-different style and layout to that venue, McDowell’s game should be ideally suited to the demands of the new course. With proven ability to handle wet, windy conditions, McDowell’s form prior to the defence of his US Open wasn’t great, but at Congressional he showed signs that he might be coming to the boil and McDowell looks primed to figure prominently this week at 22/1.
Phil Mickelson is the only American to have contested the Scottish Open and make a top-5 finish, back in 2007 but this event is a regular stop for ‘Lefty’ as part of his Open Championship preparations. On his best game, there’d be little doubting Phil’s ability to compete but the style of course and the weather forecast look to place big negatives against Phil’s chances, and I’d be surprised if he were to feature anywhere near the top of the leaderboard this week, even though we rarely see odds of 22/1 about him in any event these days.
England’s Ross Fisher has made it onto this column a few times this season, and it would be no surprise to see him go well again this week. Fisher has been largely quiet this season, but recent tournaments have seen the Ryder Cup player in better form and a recent top-10 in Munich shows he comes into this event in good form.
Fisher’s ability to play in poor conditions has been franked by his win last year in the rain-soaked Irish Open, while he also saw off a quality field in the 2008 European Open, which was played amid high winds. Add in some solid links form – a win at the 2007 KLM Dutch Open; a runner-up in the 2008 Dunhill Links Championship at St. Andrews and leading in the 2009 Open at Turnberry after 54 holes all point to Fisher enjoying a strong week at 33/1.
Welshman Jamie Donaldson is still seeking a first European Tour win, and his consistency has to be rewarded sooner or later. Donaldson has 100% record when it comes to cuts made in 2011, having made all 12 cuts from the events he has started in, and such consistency has yielded 3 top-10s from his past five starts.
Donaldson’s long-hitting, aggressive style appeared not to be suited to Le Golf National last week, so his 21st placed finish is creditable in that regard, and with some strong links golf experience to call upon he should be capable of a bold show this week at 66/1.
Irishman Shane Lowry won the 2009 Irish Open as an amateur amid monsoon conditions, and although he has suffered a spate of missed cuts recently can be expected to fare better back on a true links golf test.
His best result in 2011 has come at Wentworth where he finished in the top five, but much of his better form has come on links courses, and he could spring a big surprise at 125/1 if the return to this style of golf rekindles his form.
Scot Paul Lawrie ended a long losing run with victory in this season’s Andalucian Open and the former Open Championship will be well suited to the demands of Castle Stuart. Lawrie tends to play his best golf in his homeland and he should be sufficiently recovered from a neck injury that wrecked his chances in the BMW International Open in Munich and forced his withdrawal last week in France.
Lawrie remains one of the best ball-strikers on the Tour and if he can get into a rhythym with the putter then he is more than capable of taking a hand in the finish, especially as the victory in Spain will have given him confidence to be competitive. There are worse 100/1 shots in the field and with several bookmakers paying 6 places this week, he warrants serious consideration for each-way backers.
Selection: Graeme McDowell
Savers: Ross Fisher, Paul Lawrie
